- Bears might be sweating, up to $3b in short-side liquidations could be triggered with a move to $100k
- US policymaker announcement this week suggests that some restrictive policies may pause.
- Altcoin Analysis: ETH and SOL
Could the bears be in trouble here? That’s front and centre in my mind heading into the end of this week. Let’s break down some reasons why I think that might be the case.
Sentiment in crypto markets have taken a hit in recent weeks, with the fear and greed index currently indicating market sentiment as fearful.
Global exchange data from Coinglass suggests that if Bitcoin surges to US$100,000, up to $3 billion in short-leveraged positions could be liquidated, triggering a potential short squeeze as traders rush to cover their positions. I’ll cover more on this below.
Bitcoin volatility has also dropped to its lowest point since August 2024.
For more on this, check out my latest market update on YouTube. A move is certainly brewing…
Brian Backs memecoins
In a recent public post Brian Armstrong, Co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, has written at length his support for memecoins and free market capitalism. He mentioned that the way forward is to purge the bad actors in the space and continue to support those looking to build lasting value in the industry.
“..we should be open minded about where memecoins are going, even if some are silly, offensive, or even fraudulent today.
Memecoins are a canary in the coal mine that everything will be tokenized and brought onchain (every post, image, video, song, asset class, user identity, vote, artwork, stablecoin, contract etc).”
US monetary policy update
The minutes from the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) most recent meeting were released this morning. These documents can provide insights into recent, and future monetary policy direction, which often has an effect on the crypto market, one way or another.
A notable mention from the minutes was the consideration by the committee to cease one of its restrictive policies. Various participants noted it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until the resolution of the US debt ceiling.
Overall, this is a positive step in the direction of monetary policy easing in the US. This could as a result in a positive tailwind for crypto markets, however, policy is always an evolving environment.
Bitcoin – BTC
Bitcoin is currently trading green for the week, where it currently sits at touch over $98k.
The Bollinger bands are continuing to compress, indicating to me that expansion is generally the next move to expect.
Holding market structure | Bitcoin’s continuing to close above previous highs 12-hourly time frame provides more reasons to expect higher prices. This data tells us the market is bidding successively higher over time.
Short squeeze | As mentioned above, liquidations being laddered from here to $100k would certainly provide fuel for a move higher. And historic volatility on Bitcoin being at multi-month lows also lends its hand to when something is going to happen, it likely will be viloent in my opinion.
Failure | This would look, in my opinion like a new high that fails to get further bids, and falls below the yearly open for the first time. Targets for me would then be the January low.
Related: Can Bitcoin Push Past US $180K? Financial Giants Say Yes
Ethereum – ETH
At the mid-range | On the daily timeframe, ETH is currently consolidating at the middle of it’s current price range. This is where decision are generally made by the market.
Push above the range | Higher highs and higher lows to continue to be made, would be bullish from here. From there I would then target the grey box and watch to see how the market responds next.
Under the range | Failure to get higher prices, a move under $2,600 might lean in the favour of the bears.
Solana – SOL
Reclaimed lows | we have reclaimed the range lows in the last two days of price action. Holding this low and pushing higher would show that bulls are interested.
Under the range | failure to hold at these lows would be a sign of absence from the bulls and we could expect new lows under $160.
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